Roy Halladay expectations

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Over the last four seasons, Roy Halladay has averaged 34 starts per season. He has thrown atleast 220 innings in each of those years. His worst year out of those four? 2007. He only went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA with 139 Ks and 48 BBs. He also only made 31 starts that season. Oh and if you live under a rock, he did that pitching in the American League. More importantly, primarily against the AL East.

The last Phillie to have a similar record? Jamie Moyer matched that in 2008, when he went 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA. The long forgotten Jon Lieber did have a 17 win season in 2005, but had almost twice as many losses (13) in 4 more starts. Plus his ERA was a half a run higher. Hamels had a 15-5 season in 2007. Keep in mind, for  Moyer, Lieber, and Hamels, these are all bests over the last five seasons. Halladay’s 16 win season was his worst.

All this leads me to wonder, what we should actually expect from Roy Halladay in 2010? ESPN projects him at 18 wins. Most “insiders” predict 20+ wins. One reporter even went as far as saying “Doc” could win as many as 25. The only problem I have with all of these predictions is that no one backs up with why outside of “He’s in the NL now.”

Before going foreward, I want you to realize that I cannot predict that actual dates that Halladay pitches outside of Opening Day. He could be shuffled for a big series. He might skip a start for an unkown reason. But for the intended purpose of this entry, I assumed that the Phillies are gonna use a four man rotation through April 24th to keep the starters on their 5 day rotation. I also assumed that Halladay would pitch in the mid-summer classic, which pushes his first post-ASB start to roughly the 17th of July. Finally, I do not expect Halladay to pitch in the final series, even though thru my assumptions he would, against the Braves.

With my estimation of starts, I show Roy Halladay starting 10 games alone against the predicted 5 worst offensive teams: San Diego, Houston, San Francisco, Washington, and Pittsburgh. Also between the Phillies prolific AL-style offense and having a top 3 defense, Hallladay should bode well in the NL. My prediction: 22-3. I know it sounds really homerish, but realistically. There are not a lot of NL teams with a complete offense that scares me. There are a couple of NL players that could do some damage against Halladay, i.e. Pujols, Fielder, Manny, Zimmerman, etc. but most teams have 1 or 2 maybe 3 legitimate offensive threats.

I expect a lot of good things out of Halladay and the Phillies in 2010. If the team can stay healthy, and god willing, hit a little bit of luck, the Phillies should four-peat as NL East Champs, three-peat as NL Champs, and hopefully win 2 of 3 World Series.

3 Comments

Nice post!
I have a question: In your estimation, does Roy pitch against his former team in Toronto in June?

Unfortunately, I would say no. I could be wrong depending on the rotation setup starting the year. I did my presumption on a 4 man rotation thru April 24. If Manuel goes with a 5 man rotation out of the gate, it could be possible.

Thanks for Reading
Mike

This is not a shameless plug but here are some quotes from Halladay’s old manager:

http://1bluejaysway.blogspot.com/2010/02/cito-speaks.html

Roy goes every five days. It’s part of his routine. I did the same thing and tried to predict whether or not he will pitch against us in the G20 / Halladay bash. Based on his preference I concluded:
By my calculation if Doc goes every five days, the only date in question is the Phillies off day June 14th. If he goes on four days rest he will face the Red Sucks in Fenway and miss the Jays. If he gets pushed back, he will face the Evil Empire in the Zoo and then pitch the opener Friday June 25th at 7:07.

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